The Empire State will begin to experience power generation shortages in the southeastern part of the state starting in 2019 unless something is done to correct the looming reality of too little electricity in the region, a report on the bulk power system concluded.

The New York Independent System Operator in its latest “reality needs assessment,” or RNA, stressed that it views current capacity in generation and transmission as reliable. Yet changes in supply and demand and mothballed plants will quickly shift that picture, the ISO said.

The RNA comes out every two years to assess market conditions in New York for the next decade so the market can respond with solutions. The report’s big warning flag is that so-called resource adequacy violations will start in 2019 and increase through 2024 if new resources are not added to the system.

That news is not new, but the urgency of the message comes across in the report, which warns that the power lost in the shutdown of coal-fired plants and the likely closure of the Indian Point nuclear station will have to be replaced.

This year’s RNA differs from the last one, issued in 2012, in that it projects a need for additional resources a year earlier than identified in the last report.

“The major driver of this change is a more than 2,000-megawatt decrease in the total capacity margin (total capacity less peak load forecast) for the New York Control Area in 2019,” a summary of the report said.

At the same time, the ISO said the controversial creation of a new capacity zone for southern New York has been sending better investment signals to developers. If new units come online or old units return to full capability, the ISO said, the need for additional resources could move beyond 2019.

Click here to read the report.

Click here to see the article. Subscription required.