Searing summer heat has blanketed much of the country and once again coal power is playing an essential role in meeting soaring demand. But this coal capacity – the very power plants working overtime to keep the lights on and air conditioners running – comes from the same plants the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is determined to close.
 
Just how important is the coal fleet? On the PJM grid, the nation’s largest serving 65 million Americans, coal generation jumped to a high last week not seen since January, meeting nearly 20% of demand as temperatures topped 100 degrees in several PJM states.
 
According to analysis from Argus, coal’s share of PJM’s fuel mix over the past week was about seven percentage points higher than it was in all of June 2023, despite the grid having fewer coal units available thanks to plant closures from the past year. From June 17-23, coal generation was in fact more than twice as high as a year earlier, underscoring just how essential the fleet remains.  
 
On the MISO grid, stretching from Louisiana all the way up through the Dakotas, coal generation has regularly been the grid’s leading source of power generation during the heat wave. That was true as recently as June 26, with coal providing 34,400 megawatts of power, more than a third of the grid’s total generation.
 
Both the PJM and MISO grids have been able to meet soaring demand so far this summer, but the obvious question is will they be able to find the megawatts they need in years to come? With EPA’s blitz of power plant rules designed to eliminate the coal fleet by 2032, just as power demand soars from electrification, surging industrial reinvestment and immense load growth from data centers and AI, both grid operators are warning they’re going to be short of power.

EPA is Mandating a Power Deficit

PJM has been clear it’s going to be in a deficit during periods of peak demand as soon as 2027. With EPA’s regulatory onslaught leading the way, PJM expects to lose at least 40,000 MW of essential capacity by 2030 while replacement generation isn’t materializing at the nearly the speed or scale the operator says is needed to fill the void left by retiring plants, much less meet robust new demand.  
 
Just how much new demand is coming? According to a new report, PJM may need to double its generating capacity by 2040. A shortage of capacity is increasingly a certainty.
 
As NPR reported, a shortage of generating capacity in PJM could mean calls for reduced power consumption, a halt of power flows to other grids or even rolling blackouts in the case of emergency. With grids across the country short of power, importing surplus generation from neighboring grids during deep freezes or heat waves will be all but impossible.
 
In December, the North American Electricity Reliability Corp. (NERC) warned in its long-term reliability assessment that much of the nation will face blackout risks over the next decade during periods of peak demand and some regions will face potential power shortages during periods of “normal” operating conditions. This dire warning was issued before the full suite of the EPA’s regulatory onslaught came into clear focus.
 
As grim as NERC’s warning was just six months ago, today’s reality is likely far worse. The mismatch between what grid operators say they need to maintain reliability and the regulatory blitz promulgated by EPA is jaw dropping.
 
The EPA is tying grid operators, utilities and states’ hands and all but ensuring a power supply crisis. We’re left only pondering when, not if. Enjoy the AC this summer. It may not be available when you need it most next year.