Goodbye LNG, Hello Coal

Global coal trade is surging as the world’s energy crisis continues. Data from March and April is painting a clear picture about the global scramble to secure coal and the role U.S. exporters are playing in meeting rising demand.

According to reporting from The Financial Times, global coal imports are on track to reach their third-highest monthly level on record. Even nations that were attempting to move away from coal have put those plans in reverse as LNG prices soar.

In April, global coal deliveries to South Korea, Japan and the European Union surged 27% from a year earlier, according to data from BIMCO, the world’s biggest shipowners’ association, while natural gas-fired electricity fell sharply.

In April, coal power generation in Japan surged 11.1% as gas power plunged 12.9%. In South ​Korea, coal power rose 39.7% from the previous April. Reuters noted that Asian spot LNG prices have surged 62% since ​the start of the war, dwarfing a 13% rise in Newcastle coal prices, the benchmark for Asia.

U.S. exports are rising in key markets

U.S. trade data from March clearly reflects how Asia, Africa and Europe are increasing U.S. imports and paying a premium. The price for U.S. coal exports was up 10.7% year-over-year in March with some buyers paying more than double the price they paid in February.

U.S. exports to Indonesia, South Korea and Morocco are all up significantly year-over-year. Notably, U.S. exports to India jumped more than 1.2 million short tons from February to March as the war with Iran shutdown the Strait of Hormuz and set off the scramble for LNG alternatives.

India has become exceptionally important for U.S. exports, now taking roughly a third of total metallurgical and steam volumes. With Indian coal demand expected to reach unprecedented levels this summer and New Delhi launching a coal gasification mission to ramp up India’s coal-to-chemicals and coal-to-liquids industry, this is a trade relationship and export market worth watching closely.

U.S. exports to Europe – particularly the Netherlands, where the Port of Rotterdam serves as a gateway for U.S. supply – are also up sharply. The volume of exports is up year-over-year, but the real story is the jump from February to March—underscoring the importance of U.S. supply during this crisis. Export volumes spiked from just 71,000 short tons in February to 452,000 short tons in March with the price of U.S. coal also jumping from $89 per ton to $186 in March.

More demand coming?

There’s good reason to believe we’ve not reached a highwater mark for gas-to-coal switching. As Reuters’ commodities columnist Clyde Russel recently observed, more switching could be coming in both Japan and South Korea where the price of thermal coal is significantly cheaper than the spot price of available LNG. However, Russell notes, much of the LNG delivered to ​Japan and South Korea ⁠is under long-term contracts linked to the price of Brent crude. While oil prices have risen, they have not yet reached a sustained level that would warrant further switching from Brent-linked LNG. But should oil prices spike – a concern as the conflict with Iran drags on and oil inventories run low – the pivot to coal will become a mad dash. What is true for the Japanese and Korean markets will be true elsewhere. The longer this crisis goes on, the security and affordability provided by coal will only become more attractive.