The World Needs More Coal and America Can Deliver

India was already planning a major expansion of its coal fleet. Now those already ambitious plans are getting an upward revision. Electricity demand in India is growing so quickly that even a massive buildout of renewable energy isn’t keeping pace with the urgent need for reliable, affordable supply. It’s a story with global significance and a clear opportunity for American coal.

Last year, India planned to add 97 gigawatts (GW) of coal generating capacity by 2035. Now, the head of the country’s Central Electricity Authority says planned additions could rise to 105 GW or even 150 GW. Coal is proving so essential that an already ambitious expansion may need to grow substantially larger.

The pressure on India’s grid is mounting. Daily peak electricity demand this year has been running 45 to 50 GW above year-earlier levels. Coal generation jumped 13.3% in September to help fill the gap but despite the coal fleet’s increased output, power shortages reached their highest level in more than three years as hot weather and increased cooling demand have collided with reduced hydropower.

Even India’s 50 GWs a year of renewable energy additions aren’t enough to reliably meet ballooning demand. While substantial, those largely solar additions are little help in the evenings as power demand peaks and the sun sets. India’s experience is a reminder that expanding renewable capacity and expanding coal generation can go hand in hand—that’s certainly been the case in China.

Even as China leads the world in renewable energy additions, it is doubling down on expanding its coal fleet, already the world’s largest. China’s prioritization of grid reliability and energy security, built on a foundation provided by coal, is proving a deeply attractive model in an era defined by energy market volatility, made even more uncertain with conflict in the Middle East.

The International Energy Agency now forecasts global coal demand will rise 1.2% this year to a record 8.94 billion metric tons, reversing its earlier expectation of a decline. Surging electricity needs and renewed emphasis on energy security continue to confound predictions of coal’s retreat.

U.S. Exports Meet the Moment

For the U.S., this is an opportunity already translating into stronger exports. Through August, U.S. coal exports reached 66.4 million short tons, up 8.6% from the same period last year. India remained the largest destination, taking 18.1 million short tons, or 27% of the total. Purchases by South Korea, Germany and Indonesia also increased sharply. Those shipments include both thermal coal and metallurgical coal used to make steel.

Looking ahead, through the recent U.S.-China trade agreement, China has agreed to purchase at least 10 million metric tons of American coal in both 2027 and 2028, providing a substantial new commitment for U.S. producers.

With the world’s largest coal reserves, the U.S. is well positioned to meet growing global demand. But capturing the opportunity requires supporting domestic production and the infrastructure that connects American mines to overseas customers. The world’s demand for secure, reliable energy is growing. American coal should be an increasingly important part of the answer.